Who drops out of the GOP race next?

My money is on Santorum, as Cain is too crazy to realize he is beaten and Gingrich is just going for the payday anyway. What do you think?

Is Perry unpopular in Texas with Republicans?

These results seem to indicate so. But it makes no sense to me. Can anyone explain?

There was another Republican debate

Some thoughts:

Romneybot 9000 did a bang up job. My favorite bit was where he calmly explained that Sharia law was not going to take over any courtroom in America, because we have our own Constitution. This is a huge insult to the Tea Party crazies, but delivered in such a way that they are unlikely to understand it as an insult. Essentially, it was a signal to the rest of the Republican party that he could reign in the crazies.

Rick Santorum did a pretty good job. He is definitely trying to ride Paul Ryan's plan all the way to the moon.

Bachmann was way more polished than I thought she would be. She's a contender. Like Rick Perry, she's like a Sarah Palin who can tell you what magazines she reads.

Ron Paul and Newt were supposed to bring the fun, but they both seemed old and tired.

My boy H-Bomb didn't do so well. I was hoping he'd eke it out a bit longer, but it's plausible that this was his last debate.

Final thought: Republicans have lots of kids! Bachmann took first prize by having five kids and having fostered twenty-three. Ron Paul gets honorary mention for having delivered 4000 babies.

Added bits about Romney's true status as a robot:

Herman Cain explains it all. Sort of.

H-Bomb makes a quite sensible point:

Asked why more African Americans haven't joined him at tea party rallies and conservative conventions like the Faith And Family Conference in DC this weekend, the millionaire ex-CEO has a different explanation. African Americans, Cain told TPM, are too poor to tea party.

"They can't afford to," Cain said. "So I think the first reason is economics. If you just look at the sheer economics of it."

"If you look at the typical income of a black family of four it's going to be lower than a non-black or white family of four," he explained. "Generally speaking on average, white families are much more economically prosperous than black families. So, many black families don't have the economic flexibility to go to a CPAC conference."

Most tea partiers, Cain said, "own their own business, or they have the type of job where they have the flexibility where they can go to the rally."

"Or they're retired," he added.

That's just not the kind of job African Americans have, he said.

Very sensible. African Americans could never take the time off from work to gather for rallies like this. But the Tea Partiers can make a real party of it!

So there you have it, straight from Herman Cain: The Tea Party is a party of dilettantes! 

There goes the coveted vampire vote

via

In a failed attempt to seem more like regular folks, Mitt Romney says:

“I mean, I like the Twilight series. I thought it was fun,” Romney said. 

That would normally be a sufficient occasion to stop and ponder on the candidacy of our man Mitt. But he kept going:

“I don’t like vampires personally, I don’t know any, but you know my granddaughter was reading it and I thought, ‘Well this looks like fun,’ so I read that.”

Holeee crap. There are several possible explanations here, and Steve Benen delivers the conventional wisdom:

One can almost see the gears shifting in Romney’s mind, as if he’s thinking, “Wait, will social conservatitves throw a fit if I like tween vampire fiction? Maybe I should mention that I don’t like vampires. But will that make it sound as if I know vampires? Maybe I should mention I don’t know any.”

But if we take the statement at face value, Mitt Romney believes that vampires are real enough that he could know and/or like one. 

This is actually scary. If Mitt Romney believes in vampires, maybe we should too!

Huntsman!

The fact that videos such as this are circulating already makes me think there isn't much of a shot for old Jon in 2012:



The maker of this video thinks that Huntsman should get in the race, though, saying:

Like many others, I strongly believe that traditional conservative ideals can and should prevail in 2012. But the path will not be laid for us, and conservative policy ideas, around entitlements and budget reform especially, still need to be tested with the electorate. So consider the primary campaign a warm-up for the main event, and Huntsman a proxy for what we might face in the general election.

Reasonable. I also think this might all work out very well for Huntsman, in 2016. In fact, I think this is actually Huntsman's grand plan. He'll walk into 2016 as the "you should have picked me" candidate and be facing a non-Osama-catching-incumbent-President.

Who ya got?

"The GOP field is now officially so weak that Rick Santorum is going to announce he's entering the race."

Zing! But seriously, it seems like all the real candidates are keeping their powder dry for 2016, when they won't be facing the second coming of Bill Clinton. Which means it's time for the second string, and it looks like it's going to be a party!

Who will enter, who will win?

For my part, my money is on the money, and the money is with my man Mitt. But I think Rick Perry is just dumb enough to run. And except for the scary possibility of him actually becoming president, I think a Perry run would be totally awesome. A failed bid that drags on long enough for the national machines to totally tar him in ways that his regional foes (for example, me) just can't manage might be the only thing that derails him from being our Governor for Life. 

What do you think, dear reader? Gary Johnson? Herman Cain? With Huck out, will Palin actually come in?

* Edited to fix Cain's name. It ain't Herbert, stupid. -Jason

Newt Gingrich is…

img by DonkeyHotey

 "… probably one of the most dangerous people for the future of this country that you can possibly imagine. He's Richard Nixon, glib. It doesn't matter how much good I do the rest of my life, I can't ever outweigh the evil that I've caused by helping him be elected to Congress."


quote of the week via MoJo

So there was a republican debate tonight

I'm so high right now

And like an idiot, I watched it.

 Lessons learned:

• By applause, Ron "We Buy Gold" Paul was the clear victor. Who (other than the powerful) doesn't love Ron Paul? He articulates a clear, consistent philosophy. Even though the philosophy is pretty dumb, it's still super refreshing. 

• Luntz and his focus group were absolutely crazy for Herman "The Godfather" Cain. I've never even heard of this guy, but now I can say: You, sir, are no Ross Perot. That he did so well in Luntzville is just further proof that Republicans are crazy.

• Santorum was a delightfully frothy mix. Luntz's focus group gave him second place. 

• T-Paw was smooth, and he really could be a contender. And I love that he embraces the appellation. It's fratty, but still pretty cool… for a presidential candidate. I'm hoping Obama embraces "B-Rock."

• Luntz's group thought, to a person, that Barack Obama is a socialist, even when challenged by Luntz. 

• Luntz's group was heavily populated with mouth-breathers (there's video evidence). 

Did you watch? Who is your guy or gal in the republican field? My pick is clearly Gary "Smokey" Johnson.

This episode of "Screw the Poor" brought to you by Paul Ryan [Updated]

According to David Brooks, the Paul Ryan budget proposal will

* Prevent the government shutdown
* Set the bar for "seriousness"when it comes to budget discussions
* Become the republican nominee's budget platform
* Heal the lepers
* and...

"... will put all future arguments in the proper context: The current welfare state is simply unsustainable and anybody who is serious, on left or right, has to have a new vision of the social contract."

Well, well. Fine. Let's look at the top line item of the new vision: phasing out Medicaid Medicare* as we know over 10 years, replacing it with

"... a defined contribution plan. Instead of assuming open-ended future costs, the government will give you a sum of money (starting at an amount equal to what the government now spends) and a regulated menu of insurance options from which to choose." 

Well. Fine. Except that, as Matt Yglesias points out with a handy chart, [Medicaid*] expenditures don't match up with enrollees. Unless that regulated menu of insurance options includes high-risk pools and mandates enrollment  to cover payouts to the elderly and the disabled, it won't work even in the short term.

In the long term, of course, we've got this flat payout replacing our open-ended commitment. Since everybody from Nancy Pelosi to Paul Ryan assumes continuously rising health-care costs, how is this anything other than essentially cutting off access to health care for poor children, disabled people, and the elderly everyone except those that can pay out of pocket what used to be covered by Medicare? While still cutting taxes for the rich?

Stay classy, Republicans!

UPDATE: EPIC BELLMAN FAIL - I've conflated Medicare and Medicaid. 

Ryan proposes to phase out Medicare and replacing it with block grants will do nothing to account for rising costs, just shift the burden for most Americans on to their families. Meanwhile, he will turn Medicaid into block grands so that individual states can decide how and with what vigor they will screw the poor.

Not scared... yet.

Mike Huckabee generated a little buzz on Sunday. He told Fox News that he’s the Republican who “clearly at this point does better against Obama than any other Republican.” Mitt Romney, meanwhile, continues to focus on endorsements. He’sannounced three more in Maine, bringing his total this cycle to 100. Newt Gingrich is also keeping up with the endorsement game, throwing his support to Bill McCollum’s gubernatorial campaign in Florida.  Tim Pawlenty, for his part, continues to jet about. In recent days, he’s rallied GOP activists in Tennessee and tomorrow he heads to South Carolina, where he’ll lend a hand to Nikki Haley. Sarah Palin, of course, is also busy. | corner |

It's very hard for me to take any of these folks seriously as credible candidates for president at this point. Jonathan Chait, however, thinks that economic conditions could lead to what would be unthinkable in better times:

If economic conditions remain terrible, it's likely that the Republican Party will regain power. 9% unemployment would give even a radioactive figure like Sarah Palin a decent chance to win the presidency, and a double-dip recession would give her a very strong chance of success. This means there's a significant chance that by 2013 the country will be governed by a Republican Party that makes the Bush-era version appear benign by comparison. | tnr |

I gotta think things aren't that bad? C'mon, readers, tell me not to be scared.

img credit

Arlen Specter switches parties! But...

... as much as this seems tactically great right now for the Dems, I am skeptical about the actual end results. Let's just say that in no way will Specter be one of the better sort of Democratic Senator.

Also, for the laboristas, he has this to say:

[M]y position on Employees Free Choice (Card Check) will not change...

Kansas in the (historical comparisons) news

Also, will Steele beat the Roberts' record for shortest RNC Chairmanship ever? Matt Cooper discovered that the current record holder appears to be Sen. Pat Roberts' (R-KS) dad, C. Wesley Roberts, who was chairman for four months in 1953 before a reporter discovered he'd collected a $10,000 commission on the sale of a hospital the state of Kansas owned. Good times. I wonder if Steele can top it. |TPM|

GOP voter suppression efforts swing into high gear in New Mexico

The story starts last week, when several representatives of the New Mexico Republican party, including Rogers, held a press conference to announce that 28 people had voted fraudulently in a Democratic primary in June in Bernalillo county, which contains Albuquerque. The party released the names of ten of these people -- almost all of whom are Hispanic.

The allegations quickly fell apart. ACORN announced that it had contacted the county clerk's office, who had verified that all of the voters were in fact legitimate. The group now says it has independently contacted 8 of these 10 voters to separately verify their validity.
...
Guadalupe Bojorquez, who works in law enforcement in Albuquerque, told TPMmuckraker today that her mother, Dora Escobedo, was one of the ten voters whose names were released by the GOP.
...
Nonetheless, Bojorquez said that her mother yesterday received a visit from a man who asked for her personal information, including an ID, in reference to her eligibility to vote. Bojorquez told TPMmuckraker that according to her mother, at one point the man asked what she would do if immigration authorities contacted her.

After Bojorquez's mother, frightened, refused to let him in the door, the man waited outside her house. Eventually, Bojorquez's brother arrived at the house, emboldening Bojorquez's mother to go outside, call Bojorquez, and put her on the phone with the man.

Bojorquez said the man told her he wanted to make sure her mother knew that she shouldn't be voting, and continued to ask for her mother's personal information. |TPM Muckraker|

John Sidney McCain III and the Republican Party are Bad for America

I think many have been distracted by the polarizing figure of Sarah Palin. Please recall:

George W. Bush and the Republican party started an unjust war with Iraq based on fabricated evidence. John Sidney McCain III has been a vocal proponent of continuing the war. Barack Obama opposed the war from the start.

George W. Bush and the Republican party have made kidnapping, torture, and indefinite imprisonment without habeus corpus "business as usual". John Sidney McCain III, a former POW, opposed legislation that would ban specific torture practices. Barack Obama opposes torture and supports the Unites States Constitution.

George W. Bush and the Republican party took over a country with record budget surpluses and economic growth and created staggering debt, unemployment, and recession. John Sidney McCain III supports the current economic policy. Barack Obama supports windfall taxes on oil company profiteering, creating new jobs by developing green technology, supporting small business, fair trade, workers' rights, and other measures.

George W. Bush and the Republican party have enacted an energy policy written by oil company executives. The current energy policy has driven rapid increases in energy prices, increased reliance on foreign oil, and record profits for oil companies. John Sidney McCain III supports the current energy policy and supports increased domestic drilling for oil. Barack Obama supports rapid development of alternative energy sources.

John Sidney McCain III is inextricably linked with the current Republican administration's failures. He plans to continue these failed policies, and so would his vice president. 

What other failed policies do you want to see stopped? Post them in the comments.

Bush's Catch 22

So, lets just say the hurricane hits some Gulf community--say, Lynchburg--and hits hard enough to warrant a federal response. What does George Bush do? Does he...

A) ... do the right thing, swing for the bleachers, and pull off a successful response, knowing that this will cement in some people's minds the idea that he didn't respond to Katrina because "George Bush does not care about black people?"

or

B) ... knowing the result of A, decide to pull a Katrina, just to prove he's an equal opportunity fuckup?

or

C) ... try for A but end up doing B out of genuine incompetence?

Discuss.

Misrepresentatives

Via Marc Cooper's math, I see that the average Republican voter is to the left of the average congressional Democrat regarding the Iraq war.

Mitt Romney sucks, episode 23

Here's a tiny piece of the debate I mentioned below. Here you can see Ron Paul making sense, and Mitt being a douchebag:

Hey, there was a presidential debate this morning

Sunday morning seems a strange time for a republican presidential debate. Aren't the people to which they are pandering all in church?

Anyway, I'm blogging from my phone, so I'll be brief. But what struck me more than anything else was this: The "top tier" candidates in this field are substantially worse at the format than the "fringe" candidates. Indeed, even Duncan Hunter comes off as more serious than Mitt or Rudy. Is this Bush's legacy for republican politics?

P.S.: Ron Paul is awesome.

Rove Probed

"We're in the preliminary stages of opening this expanded investigation," Loren Smith, a spokesman for the special counsel's office, an independent investigative and prosecutorial agency, said Tuesday. "The recent suggestion of illegal political activities across the executive branch was the basis we used to decide that it was important to look into possible violations of the Hatch Act."