I got a bedazzler so my outfit's tight

Well, I guess it's too late to demonstrate, once again, my uncanny ability to predict the duration of strikes in the auto industry. It's a lucky thing, because I think I might have gotten this one wrong. The news this morning, after all, was that the sides were so far apart that they couldn't even agree who was allowed to sit at the bargaining table. What's more, Chrysler is the smallest of the big three, making it the company that the UAW is most likely to think that it can beat. Add in Chrysler's recent transition to a private ownership and attendant speculation that a major motivation for going private was to insulate the company from shareholder pressure in upcoming labor disputes, and it sure looked like a recipe for one hell of a strike.

Except that it wasn't. Instead:

A new expression is making the rounds here in the nation’s automotive capital: “Hollywood strike,” as in, “just for show.”
...
The brief walkouts appear to have emerged as a way for both union leaders and company managers, at a time of deep troubles in their industry, to prove to their constituents that they got the best deal they could under the circumstances, without the damage of an all-out war.|NY Times|

But who knows. Maybe if I had actually found the time to write a blog post during the strike I would have seen to the heart of the matter. I'll tell you one thing, it sure was a good idea to create a 'uaw on strike' tag.

The nation is a car, and we the people are the driver

I don't know about all y'all, but today's news that UAW is launching a nationwide strike against GM caught me by surprise. I mean, I knew that the negotiations were on, and that UAW had set a deadline, but I didn't think Gettlefinger had the balls to pull the trigger.

How long it will go on is a guessing game. Here's a little bit of data:

The union, which pays workers $200 a week in strike pay if they take shifts on the picket line, has nearly $900 million in its strike fund, enough to cover a two-month walkout.

G.M., meanwhile, had a 65-day supply of vehicles at the end of August, about normal for summer, and it had already announced plans to reduce production in the final three months of the year because of slowing sales. |NY Times|

And the only fact I can think to add is that a whole lot of GM's production is outside the USA nowadays. On the other side of the coin, I think the UAW is going to be able to raise truck loads of money for its solidarity fund when it comes down to it.

All of this only matters, though, if what we're looking at here is an existential throwdown. My gut is that it isn't. I think GM wanted to prove to the UAW that it isn't afraid of a strike. And I think Gettlefinger wanted to prove, partly to GM but mostly to the UAW rank and file, that he is a dog who knows at least one trick other than rolling over. So I'm betting that this is all over pretty quickly -- probably within a day or three.

Update:: Tentative agreement reached.