Electoral prognostication

Update: Gossage is in. Rice fell 16 votes short. Andre Dawson saw a significant increase in support but still fell well short of induction. Chuck Knoblach and David Justice received one vote each. Mark McGwire's vote total stayed pretty much the same. Both Lee Smith and Bert Blyleven gained votes. As of 1:30pm Eastern Time I called New Hampshire for Obama.

Well, tomorrow is the big day. That's right, the results of the Baseball Hall of Fame voting will be announced. It's almost a no-brainer, but I predict that Goose Gossage will secure election. Other thoughts:
  • Mark McGwire will almost certainly lose votes. I think it's even possible that he'll fall below 5% and be dropped from the ballot. Not likely, mind you, but possible.
  • You would think that there Andre Dawson and Jim Rice would have a shot at securing election by sweeping the anti-steroid protest vote. But you'd also think that if that were going to happen then some of the writers would have said something about it by now. In point of fact, the silence of the Andre Dawson Hall of Fame campaign is hard to miss. The Jim Rice supporters are slightly less silent, but that isn't saying much. My guess is that neither will secure election, but that Jim Rice will come close.
  • Neither Chuck Knoblach nor David Justice will receive enough votes to remain on the ballot.
  • Lee Smith will continue to lose votes.
  • Bert Blyleven will reverse last year's trend and increase his vote totals.

In other electoral news, Obama will win in New Hampshire with Clinton and Edwards in a virtual tie for second. On the Republican side, Romney will do better than expected.

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