The ponies

The post draw is done and the odds are set for the Derby. The favorite is I Want Revenge at 3-1, probably on the strength of the Wood Memorial. In that race, I Want Revenge had an absolutely horrific start but wormed his way through the field (I imagine Ulysses Everett McGill as the jockey muttering, "We're in a tight spot!") for the win.

Also strong is Pioneerof the Nile at 4-1. At the Santa Anita Pioneerof the Nile outclassed a strong field. It will be interesting to see what the horse can do when facing an even bigger challenge.

The best value is probably Friesan Fire at 5-1. People who know a lot more about the ponies than I do (doesn't take much, but still) had been talking about this horse early in the season, but he seems to have been forgotten a little bit since he didn't run in any of the premier tune-ups.

Something similar could be said about Dunkirk, though at least that horse ran in the Florida Derby. It says here that if Dunkirk wins then it'll set up an interesting Florida Derby rematch with Quality Road in either the Belmont or the Preakness, depending on when Quality Road makes it back from the cracked hoof.

For a longshot, I'd go with Chocolate Candy at 15-1. He has a good starting position and was the only horse to mount any kind of challenge to Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita. Papa Clem will probably get some love too, but I don't think that horse has even a ghost of a chance.

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