“I’m so depressed. It’s happening again. It’s a nightmare.”

Via Ben Smith, 

A major Democratic fundraiser described it a good bit more starkly after digesting the polls of recent days: “I’m so depressed. It’s happening again. It’s a nightmare.”

I'm hearing the same from a lot of friends, especially those who backed Hillary. There's a widespread feeling that Obama is getting rolled, and that he doesn't know how to push back, or isn't willing to do what it takes.

But my question is, what would it take? I hear Obama trying to reframe the debate, and push back on some of the bullshit, but it doesn't seem to penetrate the way McCain's messages do. And I don't think it's because he's not trying hard enough. Steve Benen agrees (emphasis mine):

MATTHEWS: ... I want to ask you, what will we talk about two days from now?

SCARBOROUGH: Whatever the McCain campaign wants us to talk about, because the McCain campaign is assertive.

I suppose the most obvious question that comes to mind is why the Obama campaign isn't equally assertive. But the truth is, it's quite assertive. Like D-Day, I've seen plenty of the campaign's blast faxes, emails, "In Case You Missed It" memos, etc. Obama's team is pushing plenty newsworthy stories at media personalities on a nearly constant basis.

But news outlets seem kind of picky about what kind of nonsense goes into heavy rotation. As far as I can tell, the story has to a) have video; b) be exceedingly simple and easy to summarize in a few seconds; and c) be good for John McCain.

And that is where much of the frustration comes in. We saw Gore and Kerry go down under a landslide of unfair media coverage, and ascribed a lot of the blame to the candidates. And they do deserve some of the blame. And if Obama loses, we'll find plenty to not like about the way he (and Biden!) did or did not conduct himself during the last 80 days before the election.

But we need to recognize that we live in the house that Rush and Newt built, and until we build a new house, it's going to be very hard to win national elections. And yet, I am not worried as some, and here are four reasons why:

1. The press are (slowly) turning on McCain.

Well documented at Talking Points Memo are the series of journalists who are disillusioned with McCain. This may not happen fast enough, but I'm hoping that October's press narratives are substantially different in character than September and August's.

2. Palin's star may fade.

Let's be honest. She would never have survived the Republican primary. Whether two months is long enough for her dirty laundry to be internalized by the voting public, I don't know. But it is possible. 

3. Palin scares some Jewish voters.

Witness Ed Koch. 

4. Obama has an ace in the hole

And that ace is Obama. Recall how he handed the Reverend Wright issue. He didn't push back hard, right away (as everyone wants him to be doing right now). He let the issue simmer, perhaps permanently damaging his image with a few voters. But it built anticipation. And when he finally responded with his speech on race, the press was slavering for it. It defined the news narrative for days. 

And Obama is no Kerry or Gore. Once he has everyone watching, he has the ability to package his message in such a way that it is actually received. 

You may not be convinced! But if you are despairing about the state of the Obama campaign, let us know in the comments what, specifically, you would like like to see them do. I'll start it off with something Henderson asked me:

Where are Obama's surrogates? Any surrogates?

I don't know. For example, why isn't Biden on the primetime cable news shows every night, tearing shit up?

And no, Matt Damon doesn't count as a surrogate, but he makes some good points: